Cement Carbon Credits: Will India's Cement Plants Buy or Sell?
Will India's cement sector sell or buy carbon credits under CCTS? Two analyst forecasts, the levers plants can pull, and how to plan for either outcome.
Cement is the biggest sector in India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme: 186 integrated plants, with a weighted-average target cut of about 1.57% a year, the lowest in CCTS. Will it flood the market with credits, or compete to buy them? Two credible forecasts disagree.
The Bull Case and the Bear Case
The seller view (Climate Decode). With a gentle target and proven levers, the sector ends up net long: a surplus of 27–33 lakh CCCs by FY2029-30, worth an estimated ₹1,287–1,320 crore.
The buyer view (ICRA ESG, 24 April 2026). Studying 14 listed cement companies, ICRA sees required cuts of about 0.7% in FY2025-26 rising to 2.7% in FY2026-27, a sector shortfall of roughly 0.5 MtCO₂e in the first year, and margins down by up to 19% for some firms at $10 per tonne.
Both can be partly right. The sector average hides wide plant-level spreads, and a plant that only meets its target earns nothing.
The Levers Cement Plants Can Pull
Blending fly ash and slag can cut intensity 5–6%, alternative fuels 2–4% per kiln, and waste-heat recovery 1–2%. On paper, any one lever beats the target. In practice, fly-ash supply, kiln limits and capex timing decide who gets there.
What Each Outcome Means for You
As of 22 October 2026, no Carbon Credit Certificate has traded, so no one knows the clearing price. Model both cases, and decide early whether to sell, bank or buy on the power exchanges.
ICT helps cement plants find their side of the market: target gap analysis, monthly dMRV data and an abate, buy or bank strategy built on verified numbers.
Free buy-or-sell estimate: email your cement plant's Gazette code to contact@internationalcarbontrade.com, and we'll tell you which side of the market you're likely on.
Keep Reading
- Is CCTS Cap and Trade? Intensity Targets, Zero Credits, Banking
- Carbon Marketplace vs Power Exchange: Who Executes CCC Trades?
- The January 2026 CCTS Gazette, Explained
Our CCTS Services
International Carbon Trade (ICT) is an India-based CCTS marketplace and dMRV platform offering 18 end-to-end services, from BEE ICM Portal registration and ACVA verification to buying, selling and banking CCCs on India's power exchanges.
| Register and Set Up | Monitor, Verify, File | Trade and Plan |
|---|---|---|
| BEE ICM Portal registration | dMRV platform, monthly data | Buying CCCs on power exchanges |
| Grid-India registry account | ACVA selection and booking | Selling or banking surplus CCCs |
| IEX / PXIL / HPX onboarding | Verification evidence pack | Offset CCC sourcing |
| Monitoring plan (BEE template) | E2 form and GHG emission report | Risk profiling (AAA–B) |
| Target gap and penalty analysis | Form A and Form D filings | Abate, buy or bank strategy |
| Five-year GHG reduction plan | BEE and registry query handling | CBAM and BRSR reporting |
For any services related to CCTS, contact International Carbon Trade:
- Email: contact@internationalcarbontrade.com
- Phone: +91 90544 01707
- Website: internationalcarbontrade.com
- LinkedIn: Follow International Carbon Trade
Frequently Asked Questions
- How many cement plants are under CCTS?
- 186 integrated cement plants have targets under the CCTS notifications, the largest of any sector.
- What is the cement sector's CCTS target?
- A weighted-average intensity cut of about 1.57% a year, the lowest of the notified sectors.
- Will cement sell or buy carbon credits?
- Forecasts differ. Climate Decode expects a surplus of 27 to 33 lakh CCCs by FY2029-30; ICRA ESG expects a shortfall of about 0.5 MtCO2e in FY2025-26.
- How can a cement plant cut emission intensity?
- Main levers are clinker substitution with fly ash and slag, alternative fuels and biomass, and waste-heat recovery.
- Has any cement CCC traded yet?
- No. As of 22 October 2026, no Carbon Credit Certificate has traded in India.
- How can ICT help cement companies?
- International Carbon Trade offers gap analysis, dMRV, ACVA support and CCC trading. Contact contact@internationalcarbontrade.com or +91 90544 01707.